Question Producing Not Worth It?

[Katty Korner]

I just can't make any of the math work out

So I know there are a variety of precursors to legal and illegal chemicals, but I just can't see how the math works out, at least with US penalties, on illegal goods.

Take mdma. Can easily sell for 100 gram. One ounce sold gram by gram is 2800, a kilo is literally 100k. Selling a kilo gram by gram requires knowing a bunch of people, like a whole bunch, and that exposes you to tons of risk. 100k is decent money for not much hard work though.

Wholesale the numbers go up, but the risk is crazy higher, and the chance of robbery and violence goes way up. Idk how much one can sell a kilo for, maybe 40k? And yeah, two or three sales a year and you are done for the year. But how do you get to know people who will buy a kilo from you? Lot of risk there too

Next is you being the supplier to your own crew. They can connect with more people, and sell more than you alone, but that is a lot more risk, and I imagine higher charges if caught.

I understand the darknet, that is something I'm not familiar with in terms of scale of sales, etc. So please chime in there.

I'm just trying to figure out how selling illegal substances is worth it. Like I can work a job like mine, 40 hours a week, and make a bit under 40k. So not great, but it's less stressful than selling things which could net me more, but also just have way more risk and just a worse time

Can anyone explain the economics of selling things like mdma? I just don't see how it is worth it at all.

 

[Osmosis Vanderwaal]

It sounds like you want someone to talk you into it. The economics of it you have. Work for maybe 5 days, take the rest of the year off and make what you make now for 48 weeks 5 days a week. If you are smart enough, you can sell it on the dark web and dead- drop it in your city without having to know a single person.

 

[metux1]

Do not sale,where you born.,,cameras track you easy.

 

[UWe9o12jkied91d]

A kg of bmk its lets be generous and say 300€, accounting in loss from conversion etc.
Factor in time which is different for everybody, factor in solvents and the few other reagents needed to produce 1kg of methamphetamine, let’s say 600€ which is a grossly high estimate.
Wholesale methamphetamine is what? 15000 E/kg at the very least.

 

[Katty Korner]

Not looking to be talked into it. I really am quite the coward, I speed often but am constantly scanning my mirrors, and get so nervous when cops are behind me. I haven't even done anything illegal to be that nervous.

Maybe I just don't understand how quick one can sell things, and maybe selling a kilo is super quick if you do it dark web, in person is just no worth the risk. Even if it's like a 5% chance of arrest over the year, that still feels too high.

I see what you guys are saying though. One can produce a number of kilos perhaps, sell them through various means, then take a while off. It lowers the heat, and your bills are paid. Also understand that it is high profit margins, one can turn less than 1k into 15, or just many multiples more than the investment.

 

[metux1]

If you have no buyers in kg,doin't start.,,,its very hard to find,who buys in kg....

 

[middlemaneu]

I still wonder why most vendors who are direct manufacturers or with professional chemists working for them, are just insisting on mainstream drugs, where the competition is just ridiculous and the prices just keep dropping more and more, while the quality expected from buyers is always extremely high. And this not only with the product itself, but with the services as good as amazon including overnight.

The big number of what is considered "Niche" market for several less known drugs family, or even just drugs classes belonging to their respective categories (Stimulants, Empathogens, Sedatives, Dissos) - still insanely requested but just went unnoticed for months if not years that buyers stopped trying to find legit vendors eventually after countless scams (tough, still keep the faith someday the news about a legit vendor will appear) - are just put in the background when doing the math.

Without going in some compounds where moral or ethical topics could arise, a few examples could be: A-PVP, dirty cheap to produce, but only legit vendors to be found on public markets are in Russia or maybe Poland (but none on DNMs for the second) - buyers even offered 150usd/g for real one; MXE - even if 2022 saw several pretty good alternatives, still at the top tier place, even here saw a batch sold last year ago for 180usd/g; 4-MMC, this is still around luckily, but if you are in EU the only place on DNMs you can find some without being ripped with analogues is UK - I could continue for very long such list for almost every major class, but it's enough to give an idea.

Now, if a vendor would think twice, guess which vendor will the worldwide buyers jump without a second thought as soon as the info about a real batch, lab-tested from the first buyers, appear to be confirmed? The entire batch sold out in less than a week or two after the info spreads. Just repeat few times increasing the quantity produced, and before the other vendors realized that it's actually a good idea, the current vendor would have earned enough to retire happy- being (too) greedy is never safe.

For chemists or vendors with some ethical or moral concerns for specific classes with even more an insane request worldwide, the profits can be easily 10x (chemist -> vendor, not vendor -> buyer, this could easily spike 100-200x with some classes), there is always the chance to get in touch with the known "managers" of such Niche scene, to ensure a distribution that will rollout safely to users knowing how to consume those compounds in a safe way, therefore no bad sins, other than staying out from radars without exposing on public markets or even DD if not for small batch production to verify legitimacy and deliver the bulk in a single transaction.

Last but not least, there are few other classes officially never released, but where the recreational usage has been widely confirmed, with tons of reports, and papers/researches of the past, confirming the safety for short/long term side effects. Some calsses even reached the last clinic trial stage, but for one reason or another (usually pharma-dirty-politics, like a multinational buying the entire company and patents and like it's never been seen, since their inferior product is less effective / not delivering a proper cure, but good enough to keep patients stable with an "healthy" lifetime usage and $$$ lot more), therefore such compound is still completely legal worldwide, most patents are regardless expired after 50 years. Usually such classes require a more skilled chemist, but not necessary, neither necessary expensive precursors. Safest option for chemists who would like to make some good money but not take any single risks to be busted directly or indirectly and screw up his career / happy life with a full time job and a family.